How they forecast a cold winter

Most of Scandinavia and much of western Russia is now snow covered as you would expect by late November. As far as the oceans are concerned the ENSO region has cooled this week compared to last week when the La Nina signal appeared to be fading. A very quiet and benign Winter is forecast here.

The eighth update begins where we left off with last weeks seventh update as we once again look at wet Septembers and the Winters that followed them. We countdown the 25 wettest Septembers since and reanalyze the Winters that followed them!


Solar activity remains at very low levels. The Equatorial Pacific Ocean has shown quite pronounced cooling How they forecast a cold winter August. The northern Pacific Ocean has seen no change on last weeks sixth update and sea surface temperature anomalies remain quite warm.

The third update begins looking at Arctic sea ice extent. Moving on to solar activity we see spotless condition on the solar disc at the moment with the GWV solar activity tracker continuing to show a downwards trend in solar activity as we unravel the large "spike" in sunspot numbers that occurred at the start of September.

Keep checking back for more. The journey has begun! These Winters are a mixed bag but one very clear signal signs through which is that they are generally very unsettled Winters.

NWS Forecast Office Blacksburg, VA

Solar activity is at very low levels although we have got some sunspots. This one will pick up exactly where the third update left off with more ENSO analgues.

Finally we look at the top 20 warmest UK Octobers on record back to as October was the eighth warmest October on record for the UK. The ECMWF and Meteo France seasonal model are also forecasting a cold Winter but with their MSLP anomalies hinting at the chance of a more southerly tracking jet stream we could see an increased chance of some colder conditions at times.

Temperature anomalies are coming out near normal with a drier than average Winter predicted due to the blocking We finish looking at the UKMO GloSea5 model which is going for a strong and extreme zonal pattern.

Only is possibly on a par with the current snow cover extent that we have now and only is ahead of us in terms of snow as of 27th October - Indeed this snow cover season is in many ways similar to that of except that the "explosion" in snow cover that occurred at the end of October saw snow cover backing into central and eastern Europe!

The Atlantic Hurricane season appears to be over! In the Oceans there has been very little change. Scandinavian and Russian snow cover has expanded over the past week. In the Atlantic Ocean we have very warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic close to western Africa.

Precipitation anomalies are expected to be close to normal with a dry early Winter being off-set by a wet late Winter. Jamstec is forecasting a slightly colder than average Winter but also quite a dry Winter as well.

Solar activity is currently as very low levels and we see from the GWV Winter Season Daily Solar Tracker that daily sunspot number have reduced massively in the past week as has solar flux. Looking back through the NIC archive we see thatafter being behind most years last week, is now ahead of most years in terms to total snow cover going back to The Beijing Climate Center BCC model shows below average heights to our north-east with above average heights to out south-west.Unless you live on the West Coast, you're going to want to prepare yourself for a cold and wet winter this year, according to the Farmers' Almanac forecast for the upcoming season.

While overall temperatures might be a little bit more "normal" this winter across the country compared to last year. According to the Farmers’ Almanac, the winter of – is looking like a repeat of last winter, at least in terms of temperatures with unseasonably cold conditions over the Atlantic Seaboard, eastern portions of the Great Lakes, and the lower peninsula of Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, most of the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley, as well as much of the Gulf Coast.

Jan 02,  · A potent winter storm threatened to dump wind-driven snow and ice from Florida to Maine as a fierce cold wave's unrelenting grip on the nation showed no signs of easing Tuesday, forecasters warned. NOAA National Weather Service Blacksburg, VA. Nationwide EAS and WEA Tests scheduled for September 20, ; Come Visit NWS Blacksburg - Open House October 20th, 10am-3pm.

A detailed long range weather forecast for the Winter of / in the United Kingdom and Europe starting with the Winter 17/18 NAO Forecast released July Weekly updates and news for winter /18 from September until the Winter forecast is released at the start of December Will it be a cold winter this year?

Will there be a lot of snow this winter?

How they forecast a cold winter
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